CHF/JPY is showing sign of weakness at the top of massive bullish trend

admin | Posted on November 4, 2022 |

At the first peak, BoJ intervention failed to turn away buyers, but it created a good base with a local double bottom pattern (DBP) after the drop from intervention. Our strategy for the DBP here was to buy with a target of 78.6% Fibo of the intervention wave.

It’s a clear pattern, but the Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) is the essential filter here. If it’s less than 2R, then we don’t trade it or move to the lower time frame and use early entry.

This is the first part of trading this pattern. The next phase is if the price still shows signs of weakness and we sell or wait for it to drop down to the previous structure high and test it as support, which in this case is a 148ish area. If the price tests it as support and shows a sign of strenght, we could be interested in buying again, this time with 50% risk from the profit we made.

In CHF/JPY situation, there was a signal and even a good short-term bounce. But it failed to create new higher highs. The goal of the sending retest buy entry is to continue following the primary trend. So we have to check if the trend is well mature, or if it is still a young one. If it is still young, we follow it. If it is matured, we must be careful and prepared for a bearish harmonic pattern to appear.

In our case, the harmonic pattern showed up, and the price dropped well below the support and headed to the south. If that move continues as I expect, the price may drop down to