Analysis

The U.S. federal government’s fiscal deficit for the first 10 months of the fiscal year (October 2022 through July 2023) was $1.6 trillion. That’s twice what it was for the first ten months of last year. The largest component of that increase was the higher interest expense that the government was paying on its debts. So we have to ask the question: Who’s on the receiving side of those deficits, and mainly who is on the other side of those interest expenses?
One answer is cash-rich corporations like Exxon Mobil and Alphabet as I mentioned in my recent post. But certain households are another answer.

US Stock market is down, Gold dropped down to $1885 and it is recovering now to $1920s, Bitcoin is down, Oil also dropped -8% from the recent highs and now it is recovering +3%. EURUSD is down, VIX have some mild higher highs and higher lows.

Gold Market looks interesting. The price has declined since yesterday followed by positive news affecting the market mood to more negative sentiment due to Fed’s potentially more hawkish than dovish Fed in the near future. Let’s have a look at the technical chart in comparison to the recent economic data release.

The prospects for energy stocks and Crude Oil price remain unclear for the next six months as the United States works through its current liquidity problem and potential second half of 2023 recession.

Bullish USDJPY before the Fed decision. If the price breaks out 138 level we can see 142 next major targets. Contrary to that if it rejects back due to a dovish Fed rate hike, we can see a bigger drop in the USDJPY price down to 135.00 area.

S&P 500 started to look heavy on the Daily and H4 charts today. In this post, we will take a look at the price action and patterns that are fitting perfectly the macro situation with the ongoing Fed decision on May 3rd.

Ongoing macro analysis continues to be a balance between liquidity interventions and recession probabilities. Problems in leveraged commercial real estate and unprofitable tech firms (including private equity) continue to mount. These are the most sensitive sectors to interest rates. On the other hand, the recent upturn in liquidity, and ongoing strength in sectors like travel, […]

This increased fear among hundreds of other banks and depositors. As we all know, BTC is spreading being counter banking system from numerous influencers, analysts and I will say mostly bitcoin fans.