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Gold market focused on US politics and economic developments

GOLD NEW SETUP

Gold moved higher in the most recent daily session but was unable to make a decisive move in either direction. 

Gold traders may be allowing space for crucial fundamental updates to unfold, while in the meantime keeping the precious metal’s movement somewhat subdued. In this report, we will be looking into the most important matters currently and ahead, that could generate volatility for Gold’s price and why I am so focused on Gold and trading Gond nowadays. 

My goal is to keep it as simple as possible to enable traders with minimum understandings of the market to get an idea of what is important and what is secondary when trading Gold. To start with, the major subject currently storming the Media is the US presidential elections. The numerous possible scenarios associated with the results of the elections keep traders on the back foot in our opinion, as each candidate has provided a different plan on how they would deal with the US economy after they are elected.

 The fact that Joe Biden backed by the Democratic party has stated they are willing to print more money to be inserted in the economy, in the form of fiscal stimulus packages compared to Donald Trump’s Republican party, could be a sign that depending on the result of the election, Gold traders may react accordingly.

 In my opinion, the precious metal could go in either direction, in either scenario as the Presidential Election is a major event but does not represent the overall picture as I’ve mentioned in the XM Live Basic Room Session today. The Senate race is also crucial for both the Democratic and Republican parties as its control would enable them to enjoy more political leverage. So, it would be very difficult to determine Gold’s direction with multiple scenarios on the table. However, the event is most probably to create strong market-moving effects and Gold is among the instruments that could come under immense volatility. I would like to advise caution for traders engaging the Gold market, as momentum swings could prevail. However, it was interesting to me that various well known Chinese Banks said they were ready to take action and restrict the trading of precious metals if the US presidential elections are to create strong market volatility. Reading between the lines, this could be a sign that traders are currently anticipating the results and will take action once they have a clear picture of the outcome. 

Moving forward to other financial releases from the US that could prove useful for Gold traders in the following days, we come across the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on interest rates and its interest rate decision to be released on the 5th of November in the US session.

 

 

Upon the event, we also get Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference on interest rate policy which could also be interesting for Gold traders. On Friday the 6th of November we get the US employment report for October which is usually of significant interest for Gold traders and the precious metal could move extensively upon the release of the figures. 

Finally, looking at some of the largest economies in the world like the US, the UK and the Eurozone we have solid evidence that further economic recovery has prevailed during the 3rd Quarter. According to their GDP figures which have improved, economic activity has prevailed in these economies which could be rather encouraging for Gold’s bears in this case. These figures could have been holding Gold’s price lower in the past weeks. Yet, as covid-19 cases continue to increase around the world now surpassing 46M, the possibilities of further lockdown measures increase and the negative impact could be reflected accordingly. In this case, Gold bulls could be in for a treat.

With the latest upward movement Gold is currently trading nearby the 1900 round number level. If the momentum higher continues, then the 1910 resistance level could come into play and the strength of this level was displayed from the 22nd to the 28th of October when it was constantly tested but not breached. 

I am still planning to hold my “buys” with the expectations of a bullish breakout. My next level higher is the 1930 line that was the highest price reached since the 21st of September, which is more than one month. But next buy zone is above 1910 – 1914. Break and close above 1910 – 1914 zone definitely will be my buy zone with the first obstacle 1930 level. At the top, we have the 1955 hurdle which is also imminent and is my highest possible level for now. 

If the price breaks above 1930 high, I will definitely be more bullish bias on Gold. 

For the bearish side, I need clear sell-off. The day should close below the mentioned near-term key resistance zone, and for potential short opportunities, bearish price action bellow today’s minimum will be needed.

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